The OSS project: anticipating the unexpected to understand contemporary crises

“The project emerged in the spring of 2024, following the DGRIS's announcement of a new certification for strategic studies research centres,” explains historian Olivier Forcade, director of the Sirice joint research unit. The goal is to build strategic international partnerships with universities and leading institutions, supporting both initial and continuing education, research, and the advancement of civilian and military academic initiatives. The project also works to enrich public discourse in France and Europe by promoting accessible knowledge on defence and international security issues.

OSS is one of three winning projects chosen nationally, following an evaluation by the French National Research Agency and a hearing before the DGRIS in 2025. The project was designed to expand into the social sciences and artificial intelligence, naturally leading to a partnership with Paris Panthéon-Assas University and the Centre Thucydide, headed by Professor Jean-Vincent Holeindre. The certification was granted for a five-year period, enabling academic and research activities to be coordinated sustainably and paving the way for the upcoming creation of a Research Institute on Strategies and International Security (IRSS).
 

Strategic surprise

Olivier Forcade explains “strategic surprise refers to the sudden entry of a state, society, or international system into an event that defies expectations.” The OSS project chose to address and analyse three points of view: “surprising the adversary,” “being surprised,” and “reacting to a strategic, political, economic, technological, or societal scenario that disrupts, challenges, or calls into question the very foundations of the functioning, or even the existence, of a state, society, or international system.”

This framework sheds light on the upheavals that are shaping current international events as well as those from history. “We are living in a period where strategic surprises are taking very concrete forms,” adds the historian. “Take, for example, recent political announcements in the United States, Russia's invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022, Hamas' attacks on Israel on 7 October 2023, or, going further back in history, Germany's attack on the Soviet Union in June 1941.” Strategic surprise can also arise from health, economic, or technological factors, such as the COVID-19 pandemic.
 

A multidisciplinary programme

The originality of the OSS project lies in the central role given to the humanities, in conjunction with social sciences and digital humanities through the use of AI. The objective is to develop a comprehensive encyclopaedia of strategic surprise, drawing on an extensive body of case studies spanning all historical periods and civilizations. The project draws upon both theoretical and practical approaches from history, political science, geography, and law, and situates them within the broader canon of strategic thought and tradition. “We are neither oracles nor forecasters. We are historians, political scientists, lawyers, geographers, analysts, lecturers, civilians, and military personnel. We seek to produce scientific thinking that can be used in the field of strategy and public decision-making,” insists Forcade.

The primary objective is to build a national and international database dedicated to case studies, in collaboration with the Sorbonne Cluster for Artificial Intelligence (SCAI) and the “Humanum” research chair. This database constitutes a digital encyclopaedia of strategic surprise, grounded in advanced data processing methods that incorporate contributions from the digital humanities and artificial intelligence.
 

A vast ecosystem in Paris, France, and Europe

To achieve this, the programme relies on a robust institutional ecosystem jointly supported by Sorbonne University and Paris Panthéon-Assas, bringing together research teams from both institutions, key Sorbonne University institutes, most notably SCAI and the Ocean Institute, as well as the Faculty of Health. Olivier Forcade recounts, "I joined the scientific council of the Pitié-Salpêtrière Medical Crisis Management Chair, established in the autumn of 2025, at the invitation of Professors Uzan and Raux. Discussions with emergency physicians, disaster medicine specialists, and military doctors from Val-de-Grâce, who are involved in reviewing the experience of the Covid-19 crisis, have highlighted the value of joint actions with the health sector.”

The project aligns with the dynamic fostered by the 4EU+ Alliance and its partners, situated within ongoing debates surrounding European strategic autonomy and its relationship to both the European Union and NATO.

Behind this front line, there is a supportive network of civilian and military partners, notably from the French Ministry of Armed Forces and the Ministry for Europe and Foreign Affairs. Senior officers and generals, including Christophe Prazuck and Benoît Durieux, trained in academic research, will also take part in the programme. This cooperation is part of the broader framework of the École Militaire campus, which brings together several research centres linked to military headquarters and public defence institutions.
 

New financial and human resources

With a budget of €1.93 million, nearly 80% of which is devoted to human resources and 20% to operations, the OSS project provides essential support for research. The “Centre of Excellence” designation provides for the recruitment of two research engineers, two postdoctoral fellows, and five doctoral candidates throughout the project’s duration. These positions are integrated within the existing capacities of the Thucydide Centre and the SIRICE research unit, which bring together a core network of approximately thirty experts in France and internationally. Together, these two entities lay the groundwork for a permanent institute to be created as the long-term institutional extension of the programme.

The heart of the project: academic programmes 

The OSS project also bolsters an essential component: education. It consolidates existing initiatives at Sorbonne University and Paris Panthéon-Assas, who has been developing an undergraduate degree in strategic studies since 2025, and jointly offers a Master's degree in international relations with Sorbonne University since 2010. The programme will enhance these courses, especially at the doctoral level, and will develop structured continuing education initiatives tailored to partners and public institutions.

The dissemination of knowledge  

The geographic anchoring of the OSS project in the city-campus, at the heart of Paris, is not merely symbolic: it reflects the desire to make the university a committed and pivotal player at the centre of the city.

The project’s research will generate academic publications in France and internationally, as well as monographs derived from the PhD theses defended within its scope. These will be published in the collections of the Thucydide Centre, CNRS Éditions or Sorbonne University Press.

The project also includes several initiatives to reach wider audiences beyond the academic world. An annual summer school will be organised for Master's, PhD and post-doctoral students, as well as public institutions and actors outside the university. The programme also aims to develop a strategic studies and international relations fair open to civil society.

A website will be created to ensure the progressive dissemination of the project’s outputs. It will showcase the analyses produced through seminars held at the two institutions, presented in a range of formats, including articles and podcasts.

A series of public lectures will also aggregate this initiative. Finally, the programme will draw on the Digital Encyclopaedia of European History in order to disseminate the research more widely, particularly to secondary and higher education communities.

By creating a collaborative space for academics, civil, and military practitioners, the OSS project aims to overcome traditional disciplinary divides between the humanities and social sciences, towards the medical disciplines and AI. The OSS project works to position research as a forum for shared debate and interrogate the foundations of trust linking scientific knowledge, institutions, and society.